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New method predicts a hotter and drier state

Tuesday October 12, 2010 - 06:45 EDT
Audience submitted image
Scientists predict temperatures will rise by almost 3 degrees. - Audience submitted

New climate research is predicting a hotter and drier Tasmania by the end of the century, if there is no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

In an Australian first, scientists are using global climate modelling to predict climate change in 10 square kilometre blocks throughout Tasmania.

Over the next 90 years, it is predicted there will be more dry days and when it does rain the falls will be heavier.

The temperature is also forecast to rise by almost 3 degrees under current green house gas emission levels and 1.6 degrees at reduced levels.

Reseacher Doctor Tony Press says the findings are surprising.

"You can only explain the amount of temperature change that's happened in Tasmania over the last 50 years by taking into acount the greenhouse gas emmission," he said.

Project leader, Professor Nathan Bindoff, says the predictions were tested against historical weather observations.

"Tasmania's warmed by half a degree over the last 50 years, 0.1 degrees per decade."

"If you look at the simulations, that's almost precisely the amount that we see since the 1960's.

"So the simulations which are only changed by greenhouse gases is exactly the right amount to explain the observed change," he said.

The report will be released today at the Climate Futures for Tasmania Summit.

- ABC

© ABC 2010

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