Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
med
18
low
19
high
20
med
21
med
22
med
23
24
25
26
low
27
low
28
29
med
30
med
31
med
Aug 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
med
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
12
med
13
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 July to 25 July, 4 August to 8 August, and 11 August to 15 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 July to 18 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 July to 25 July, 30 July to 3 August, and 8 August to 12 August.

Issued Jul 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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