Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
26
27
med
28
29
30
31
Feb 1
low
2
low
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
16
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 January to 28 January, 9 February to 13 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 January to 31 January, 16 February to 20 February, and 20 February to 24 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 24 January to 28 January.

Issued Jan 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Townsville airport closes, but Tropical Cyclone Kimi weakens, is unlikely to cross coast

01:15 EDT

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says it is now unlikely weakening Tropical Cyclone Kimi will significantly impact the north Queensland coast.

South-east Queensland lashed by 'very dangerous' storms and intense rainfall

23:34 EDT

Dangerous thunderstorms that hit south-east Queensland on Monday night have brought substantial rain to the region, with one bayside suburb recording 118mm in one hour.

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