Southern Coastal 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
20
21
22
low
23
low
24
25
low
26
low
27
28
low
29
med
30
31
low
Nov 1
2
3
4
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
low
15
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 October to 3 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 November to 11 November, 11 November to 15 November, and 15 November to 19 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 10 November to 14 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

Issued Oct 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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