Pilbara 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
31
Apr 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
low
25
med
26
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 April to 15 April, 15 April to 19 April, and 23 April to 27 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 March to 31 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 April to 13 April, 15 April to 19 April, and 23 April to 27 April.

Issued Mar 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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12:43 EDT

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Is summer over in Perth yet?

14:24 EDT

After unseasonably hot days in Perth this week, cooler temperatures bring relief with more autumn-like weather over the weekend.