Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
8
high
9
high
10
high
11
high
12
high
13
med
14
low
15
med
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
high
20
low
21
high
22
23
24
med
25
med
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
low
Sep 1
2
low
3
low
4
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 August to 23 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 29 August to 2 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 August to 16 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 25 August to 29 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 August to 15 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August.

Issued Aug 6

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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