Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 November to 12 November, 17 November to 21 November, and 25 November to 29 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 November to 14 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 21 November to 25 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 November to 12 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 20 November to 24 November.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Today's brief storms just a taste of what's in store for South Australia
14:11 EDT
A line of storms has been rushing across southern parts of South Australia today, and is likely just a taste of what's in store for large parts of the state on Thursday.
Wet and stormy start to November looms for Australia
12:47 EDT
October has had its fair share of wild weather in eastern Australia.
