Kimberley 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
23
low
24
med
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
med
29
30
Dec 1
2
3
low
4
5
6
7
low
8
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
15
low
16
low
17
18
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 November to 2 December, 9 December to 13 December, and 15 December to 19 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 November to 30 November, and 3 December to 7 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 December to 10 December, 12 December to 16 December, and 18 December to 22 December.

Issued Nov 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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