Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
med
med
med
med
med
med
low
low
med
med
med
high
high
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 June to 12 June, 14 June to 18 June, and 26 June to 30 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 June to 7 June, and 27 June to 1 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 June to 9 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 27 June to 1 July.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Chilly mornings on the horizon for Brisbane
15:55 EST
The mercury is forecast drop into single figures by Friday morning in Queensland's capital, as cold and very dry air migrates across the region from the southwest.
The first cold front has arrived for SA
12:14 EST
The first in a series of gusty cold fronts has commenced crossing southeastern Australia, bringing the strongest wind gusts in over 2 years to parts of the Yorke Peninsula.
Wintry week ahead for southeastern Australia
13:59 EST
A procession of cold fronts will cause snow, hail, thunderstorms, rain and damaging winds in parts of southeastern Australia during the next several days.
