Great Southern 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
high
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low
low
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high
low
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med
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low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 9 March to 13 March, and 13 March to 17 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 March to 25 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 March to 14 March, 14 March to 18 March, and 23 March to 27 March.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
A very wet summer for the NSW Mid North Coast
16:16 EDT
La Niña has lived up to its name this past summer for much of eastern Australia, with the NSW Mid North Coast copping a drenching.
Tropical Cyclone spinning up near Cairns
14:01 EDT
A tropical low is deepening off the north Queensland coast, and is likely to become Tropical Cyclone Niran in the near future.
