Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
30
31
Feb 1
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
16
low
17
18
19
20
21
22
low
23
24
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 21 February to 25 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 February to 3 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 February to 7 February, 12 February to 16 February, and 19 February to 23 February.

Issued Jan 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Twin tropical lows soaking northern Australia

11:25 EDT

A couple of tropical low pressure systems are causing heavy rain in northern Australia and both have potential to become tropical cyclones later this week.

Tropical cyclone watch declared for Gulf communities, system expected to strengthen

01:23 EDT

A cyclone watch is in place for Gulf of Carpentaria communities between Aurukun and Karumba, including Mornington Island, as a tropical low moves slowly towards the Queensland coast.

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