Central Wheatbelt 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
20
21
22
low
23
24
25
26
27
low
28
29
30
low
31
Sep 1
low
2
low
3
4
low
5
med
6
7
8
9
low
10
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 August to 22 August, 30 August to 3 September, and 14 September to 18 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 August to 15 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 August to 22 August, 2 September to 6 September, and 10 September to 14 September.

Issued Aug 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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