Wimmera 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 6 November to 10 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 21 November to 25 November.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Promising signs of SA dry spell coming to an end
17:13 EDT
Much of South Australia has had little or no rain during the past week or so, making some farmers nervous, but they shouldn't have to wait too much longer.
Skies spark over northwestern Queensland
14:15 EDT
Slow-moving storms have brought very heavy rain to parts of northwestern Queensland this morning, with one location receiving four months' worth of rain in just five hours.
