Wimmera 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 27 March to 31 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 March to 13 March, and 16 March to 20 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 March to 15 March, 19 March to 23 March, and 28 March to 1 April.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Tropical Cyclone Niran update
12:02 EDT
Northern Queensland is being spared from the worst impacts of Tropical Cyclone Niran as the system gains strength just a few hundred kilometres from Cairns.
