W S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
med
6
low
7
high
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
high
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
30
31
Jan 1
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 December to 26 December, 26 December to 30 December, and 6 January to 10 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 December to 24 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 3 January to 7 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 7 January to 11 January.

Issued Dec 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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