W & S Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
Mar 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
6
7
med
8
high
9
med
10
11
med
12
13
14
low
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
med
24
low
25
26
med
27
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 March to 10 March, 20 March to 24 March, and 28 March to 1 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 February to 1 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 6 March to 10 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 31 March to 4 April.

Issued Feb 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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