South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
high
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
med
29
low
30
31
Apr 1
2
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 March to 28 March, 1 April to 5 April, and 8 April to 12 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 March to 16 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 27 March to 31 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 March to 18 March, 25 March to 29 March, and 2 April to 6 April.

Issued Mar 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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