South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
high
12
high
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
high
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
high
26
high
27
med
28
med
29
high
30
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 3 September to 7 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 August to 12 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 18 August to 22 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 9 August to 13 August, 15 August to 19 August, and 24 August to 28 August.

Issued Aug 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Fourth warmest July on record with above-average temps in all states

17:01 EST

It might not have felt like it in southern states, with the heaviest snow depth in 21 years in NSW, but Australia as a whole has officially recorded its fourth warmest July on record.

At last, sunshine for Perth after wettest July in quarter of a century

11:51 EST

The good news for Perth and southern WA is that the week ahead looks like it'll stay mostly dry, after an extremely soggy July which was the wettest in 26 years.

Get a sneak peak into the new Weatherzone Beta website experience while we continue to build out its full functionality.
Explore new datasets, map layers, 7-day charts, 12-month trends and much more!