South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
27
high
28
low
29
high
30
low
Oct 1
med
2
3
4
low
5
med
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
14
15
low
16
17
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 September to 29 September, 29 September to 3 October, and 9 October to 13 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 October to 6 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 September to 29 September, 29 September to 3 October, and 10 October to 14 October.

Issued Sep 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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