South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Dec 1
high
2
3
4
low
5
high
6
low
7
med
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
14
low
15
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
24
25
low
26
low
27
28
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 December to 9 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 1 January to 5 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 December to 9 December, 17 December to 21 December, and 23 December to 27 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 December to 9 December, 13 December to 17 December, and 17 December to 21 December.

Issued Nov 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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