South West 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
7
low
8
9
10
11
12
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
med
Jul 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 June to 28 June, 28 June to 2 July, and 8 July to 12 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 June to 21 June, and 6 July to 10 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 24 June to 28 June, and 8 July to 12 July.

Issued Jun 5

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Clouds build over winter rain outlook

15:04 EST

There's been a substantial change in the outlook for rainfall across Australia this winter, with a reduction in the likelihood of above-average rain across much of the country.

Rain plays a surprising role in making some restored prairies healthier than others

12:04 EST

Prairies once covered an enormous area of North America, but today have been reduced to a small fraction of this historical range.