Northern Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
29
30
low
31
low
Sep 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
low
8
9
10
11
low
12
med
13
low
14
med
15
16
17
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are three main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, and New Zealand.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 August to 29 August, 6 September to 10 September, and 18 September to 22 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 August to 29 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 August to 29 August, 31 August to 4 September, and 18 September to 22 September.

Issued Aug 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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