North East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
med
Jun 1
med
2
3
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
high
27
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 June to 24 June, 25 June to 29 June, and 29 June to 3 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 8 June to 12 June, and 17 June to 21 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 June to 12 June, 20 June to 24 June, and 29 June to 3 July.

Issued May 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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