Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
high
26
med
27
low
28
29
med
30
Oct 1
high
2
med
3
high
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
low
19
low
20
21
low
22
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 26 October to 30 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 September to 3 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 3 October to 7 October, and 26 October to 30 October.

Issued Sep 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Wallet of missing South Australian boatie Tony Higgins found washed ashore during search

23:24 EST

Personal items including a wallet belonging to missing South Australian boatie Tony Higgins have been found washed ashore, police have confirmed.

Warming up in the southwest

16:45 EST

While southeastern Australia braces for a blast of wintry weather later this week, sothwestern Australia is getting an early taste of summer.