Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
med
6
low
7
8
9
10
low
11
low
12
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
med
31
med
Aug 1
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, and 25 July to 29 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 July to 16 July, 17 July to 21 July, and 3 August to 7 August.

Issued Jul 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Sparky skies over northeastern NSW and southern Queensland

13:18 EST

An active trough swept over northeastern NSW and southern Queensland on Friday, providing quite the out-of-season light show.

Healthy overnight snowfalls greet skiers and boarders on Saturday

11:00 EST

A cold front delivered widespread 15-25cm of fresh snow to Victorian and NSW ski resorts overnight, making for a cracking start to the weekend.