Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
med
24
med
25
high
26
med
27
med
28
29
30
Jul 1
low
2
high
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
med
7
low
8
9
10
med
11
high
12
low
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
high
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 June to 4 July, 16 July to 20 July, and 20 July to 24 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 June to 4 July, and 7 July to 11 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 June to 4 July, 15 July to 19 July, and 19 July to 23 July.

Issued Jun 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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