Melbourne 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
high
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
med
Aug 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
med
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
low
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 August to 7 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 August to 14 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 August to 7 August, 10 August to 14 August, and 21 August to 25 August.

Issued Jul 22

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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