Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
5
low
6
low
7
8
9
10
11
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
17
18
low
19
low
20
21
22
23
24
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
29
30
May 1
low
2
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 April to 14 April, 16 April to 20 April, and 5 May to 9 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 16 April to 20 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 April to 15 April, 17 April to 21 April, and 5 May to 9 May.

Issued Apr 4

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Strong winds lash the southeast

13:15 EDT

A vigorous cold front has swept through parts of the southeast, bringing wind gusts in excess of 100km/h to some exposed and elevated parts.

When it rains, it pours over NSW

13:07 EDT

Parts of New South Wales have recorded their best daily April rainfall in decades, as a strong cold front and trough sweeped over the state overnight.

Sunflowers brighten up the Liverpool Plains countryside after years of drought

10:41 EDT

From dry and dusty paddocks an increasingly rare crop is flowering on the New South Wales Liverpool Plains, standing as a symbol of recovery from an intense one-in-100-year drought.