Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
17
18
19
20
21
med
22
23
24
25
26
low
27
28
29
30
May 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the south Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 19 April to 23 April, 13 May to 17 May, and 17 May to 21 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 April to 23 April, 2 May to 6 May, and 14 May to 18 May.

Issued Apr 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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