Mallee 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
high
18
low
19
med
20
high
21
high
22
23
med
24
med
25
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
low
30
31
Sep 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
5
low
6
7
8
9
med
10
low
11
12
13
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 8 September to 12 September, and 16 September to 20 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 September to 18 September, and 18 September to 22 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 August to 25 August, 7 September to 11 September, and 14 September to 18 September.

Issued Aug 15

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Wild days for southwestern WA

15:50 EST

Western and southwestern WA is in for another wild couple of days as a frontal system crosses the region over the next 48 hours.

Wettest August in years for far western NSW

11:08 EST

After widespread falls last week, another rain band swept much of NSW during Friday, making monthly totals already exceed the average in some places.   Bourke and Cobar collected 13mm from this last rain event, which makes the total rainfall so far this month exceed 30 and 40mm, respectively.