East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
11
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
high
16
high
17
med
18
high
19
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
high
28
29
med
30
high
31
low
Sep 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
low
6
low
7
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 13 September to 17 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 24 August to 28 August.

Issued Aug 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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