East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
med
high
high
med
high
low
med
low
med
med
med
med
high
med
high
low
low
low
med
med
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 8 September to 12 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August, 3 September to 7 September, and 13 September to 17 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 19 August to 23 August, and 24 August to 28 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
WA boasts new 'canyon' after rare south coast weather event
12:53 EST
Farmers in WA's Great Southern may have been crying out for rain, but severe weather in recent weeks has proven that occasionally it is possible to have too much of a good thing.
Wild weather forces evacuations on NSW South Coast, topples trees in Sydney
12:44 EST
Torrential rain has forced residents in low-lying NSW South Coast communities to evacuate their homes while hundreds of calls for help were made to State Emergency Services (SES) in Sydney.
