East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
Apr 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
med
5
low
6
7
low
8
med
9
high
10
high
11
low
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
high
19
20
21
low
22
high
23
high
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 19 April to 23 April, and 3 May to 7 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April, and 29 April to 3 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 2 May to 6 May.

Issued Mar 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Wintry weather on the horizon for southeastern Australia

12:05 EDT

Rain, thunderstorms, damaging winds, snow and hail could all affect southeastern Australia during the second half of this week.

Wetter autumn ahead for western and southern Australia

12:53 EDT

Active northwest cloud bands may bring above average rainfall over the next few months across large areas of western and southern Australia.

Windy and wet in Victoria as thunderstorms develop

12:43 EDT

A trough and front currently moving across southern parts of the country should trigger showers and thunderstorms, with some storms in parts of Victoria likely to be severe.