East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
med
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 January to 30 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 15 February to 19 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, 6 February to 10 February, and 21 February to 25 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 February to 16 February, and 20 February to 24 February.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Canberra's hailstorm followed a horror bushfire season, but it's unlikely they're related
20:27 EDT
Yesterday Canberra was thrashed by a hailstorm that lasted little more than 10 minutes.
Wild storms rumble across South East Queensland, leaving thousands without power
20:20 EDT
Severe thunderstorms have moved across parts of South East Queensland, bringing down powerlines and trees.
Fire bans declared as grass blazes pose new threat and danger reaches 'extreme' in Mallee
19:50 EDT
Victoria's emergency services are bracing for a new fire threat tomorrow, with dangerous hot and windy conditions forecast for the west of the state which has so far remained relatively untouched this fire season.
