East Gippsland 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
med
low
med
low
low
med
high
high
low
low
low
low
med
med
high
low
high
high
med
med
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 April to 17 April, 19 April to 23 April, and 3 May to 7 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 21 April to 25 April, and 29 April to 3 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 April to 11 April, 20 April to 24 April, and 2 May to 6 May.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Wintry weather on the horizon for southeastern Australia
12:05 EDT
Rain, thunderstorms, damaging winds, snow and hail could all affect southeastern Australia during the second half of this week.
Wetter autumn ahead for western and southern Australia
12:53 EDT
Active northwest cloud bands may bring above average rainfall over the next few months across large areas of western and southern Australia.
Windy and wet in Victoria as thunderstorms develop
12:43 EDT
A trough and front currently moving across southern parts of the country should trigger showers and thunderstorms, with some storms in parts of Victoria likely to be severe.
