Central 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
med
5
low
6
med
7
8
9
low
10
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
17
low
18
low
19
high
20
med
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
28
low
29
high
30
high
31
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 July to 14 July, 26 July to 30 July, and 5 August to 9 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 July to 15 July, 20 July to 24 July, and 28 July to 1 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 July to 14 July, 28 July to 1 August, and 5 August to 9 August.

Issued Jul 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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