West Sth Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
15
16
17
18
high
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
low
24
high
25
low
26
27
low
28
high
29
med
30
high
31
med
Aug 1
med
2
med
3
low
4
high
5
med
6
low
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 27 July to 31 July, and 14 August to 18 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 August to 8 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 13 August to 17 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 17 July to 21 July, 21 July to 25 July, and 14 August to 18 August.

Issued Jul 12

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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