Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
11
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
high
23
med
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
low
Sep 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
med
5
low
6
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 August to 22 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 31 August to 4 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 5 September to 9 September, and 9 September to 13 September.

Issued Aug 9

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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