Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
24
med
25
med
26
27
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
low
Feb 1
2
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
low
14
15
med
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 27 January to 31 January, 6 February to 10 February, and 16 February to 20 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, and 12 February to 16 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 January to 30 January, 30 January to 3 February, and 6 February to 10 February.

Issued Jan 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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