Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
med
26
27
28
29
30
low
31
med
Nov 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
med
5
high
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
med
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
low
16
med
17
high
18
low
19
20
21
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 October to 4 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 22 November to 26 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 15 November to 19 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 October to 2 November, 14 November to 18 November, and 23 November to 27 November.

Issued Oct 24

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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