Upper Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
high
17
med
18
high
19
med
20
low
21
low
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
low
28
high
29
med
30
high
Jul 1
med
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
high
12
high
13
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 June to 30 June, 10 July to 14 July, and 16 July to 20 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 June to 2 July, 10 July to 14 July, and 16 July to 20 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 June to 4 July, 11 July to 15 July, and 16 July to 20 July.

Issued Jun 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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