Northeast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
high
low
low
med
med
low
low
low
med
low
med
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
high
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 October to 11 October, 13 October to 17 October, and 22 October to 26 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 5 October to 9 October, and 14 October to 18 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 September to 2 October, 8 October to 12 October, and 14 October to 18 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Strongest wind in 10 years blasts parts of Tasmania
12:38 EST
The weather station at the top of kunanyi / Mount Wellington clocked its strong wind gust in a decade on Thursday morning, with more dangerous wind on the way for all of Tasmania.
Could snow reach sea level in Tassie on Friday night?
15:47 EST
After a blast of cold and windy weather earlier this week, another strong cold front is about to send shivers across southeastern Australia and deliver snow to very low levels in Tasmania.
