Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
med
high
high
low
low
low
med
med
low
low
low
low
low
med
high
med
low
low
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 December to 24 December, 27 December to 31 December, and 4 January to 8 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 December to 27 December, 28 December to 1 January, and 2 January to 6 January.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 December to 24 December, 25 December to 29 December, and 9 January to 13 January.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
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