Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
high
23
high
24
high
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
med
31
Nov 1
med
2
med
3
low
4
med
5
high
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
low
11
12
low
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 November to 8 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 2 November to 6 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

Issued Oct 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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