Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
med
high
high
med
med
low
low
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high
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low
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low
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low
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| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 October to 11 October, 12 October to 16 October, and 19 October to 23 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, and 17 October to 21 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 12 October to 16 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Broken Hill cops a drenching with half of all last year's rainfall falling in just 20 minutes
18:56 EST
Dry outback towns in the New South Wales far west have been drenched with their heaviest rainfalls in recent years including Broken Hill, hit with unusual flash flooding.
Northern Territory September rain and thunderstorms
13:12 EST
A low pressure trough has drawn in tropical moisture and spread it across northern parts of the Northern Territory, resulting in significant September rain and a few storms.
