Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
med
med
med
low
med
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 29 December to 2 January, and 2 January to 6 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 15 December to 19 December, and 21 December to 25 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 December to 19 December, 24 December to 28 December, and 3 January to 7 January.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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