Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
med
med
low
high
high
med
low
med
low
low
low
low
med
low
high
high
med
med
high
med
low
low
med
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 24 May to 28 May, 9 June to 13 June, and 20 June to 24 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 June to 5 June, 5 June to 9 June, and 9 June to 13 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 June to 17 June, 18 June to 22 June, and 22 June to 26 June.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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