Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
high
high
high
med
low
low
low
med
med
med
med
low
med
high
low
med
low
med
low
low
med
low
low
med
med
high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 October to 30 October, 30 October to 3 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 November to 8 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 October to 31 October, 2 November to 6 November, and 16 November to 20 November.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Some say La Nina is already here
16:18 EDT
While Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says that there is a 70 percent chance of La Niña developing later this year, the U.S.
Three maps which explain this week's severe thunderstorms over NSW and QLD
12:17 EDT
Eastern Australia has been hit by several days of severe weather this week, including multiple supercell thunderstorms.
