Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
med
high
low
low
high
med
low
low
med
low
high
high
med
low
low
med
med
low
med
low
low
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 3 April to 7 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 March to 16 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 3 April to 7 April.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Cyclone Niran forms near Queensland
08:04 EDT
Tropical Cyclone Niran has developed off the north Queensland coast this morning.
