Lower Derwent 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
27
med
28
med
29
low
30
31
med
Sep 1
med
2
med
3
high
4
med
5
low
6
high
7
low
8
med
9
high
10
med
11
med
12
med
13
high
14
high
15
high
16
med
17
med
18
high
19
med
20
med
21
med
22
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 September to 7 September, 11 September to 15 September, and 22 September to 26 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 August to 27 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 August to 4 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 11 September to 15 September.

Issued Aug 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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