Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
high
20
med
21
22
23
24
low
25
med
26
high
27
high
28
29
30
31
low
Jun 1
high
2
low
3
4
med
5
low
6
low
7
8
med
9
10
low
11
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 23 May to 27 May, 2 June to 6 June, and 15 June to 19 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 25 May to 29 May, and 30 May to 3 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 May to 29 May, 30 May to 3 June, and 21 June to 25 June.

Issued May 18

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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