Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
high
25
low
26
high
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
low
31
low
Sep 1
med
2
high
3
med
4
high
5
med
6
low
7
med
8
low
9
med
10
11
med
12
med
13
med
14
med
15
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 13 September to 17 September, and 17 September to 21 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 August to 19 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 August to 4 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 16 September to 20 September.

Issued Aug 17

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

How an ancient trade is helping one of SA's oldest farming families survive the big dry

06:04 EST

Holowiliena Station in the Flinders Ranges is in the grip of one of the worst droughts of its 167-year history.

Perth hit by cold front, bringing snow to Stirling Range in south

23:31 EST

Western Australia's South West has been lashed by heavy rain and strong winds, with a cold front blanketing the mountain peaks of the Stirling Range in snow.

Western Australia rain, snow and frost

13:33 EST

A strong cold front delivered at least some rain to most central and southern districts of WA, except for Eucla, over the last 24 hours.