Central North 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
4
5
6
7
8
9
low
10
11
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
17
low
18
19
20
21
med
22
low
23
high
24
low
25
low
26
27
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 27 March to 31 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 March to 13 March, and 16 March to 20 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 11 March to 15 March, 19 March to 23 March, and 28 March to 1 April.

Issued Mar 3

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Severe storms hitting WA

15:51 EDT

A mass of tropical air is plunging over Western Australia today, causing heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the state's western and southwestern inland.

Tropical Cyclone Niran update

12:02 EDT

Northern Queensland is being spared from the worst impacts of Tropical Cyclone Niran as the system gains strength just a few hundred kilometres from Cairns.

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