Yorke Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
low
30
low
Dec 1
med
2
3
4
5
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
med
19
20
21
22
23
low
24
25
26
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 6 December to 10 December, 16 December to 20 December, and 23 December to 27 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 2 December to 6 December, 7 December to 11 December, and 24 December to 28 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 December to 20 December, 20 December to 24 December, and 25 December to 29 December.

Issued Nov 27

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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