West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
med
med
med
low
low
low
med
med
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 October to 8 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 24 October to 28 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October, 19 October to 23 October, and 28 October to 1 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 4 October to 8 October, 10 October to 14 October, and 20 October to 24 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Rain and storms returning to eastern, southeastern Australia
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After a run of relatively dry and at times showery weather in recent weeks, a more substantial outbreak of rain and thunderstorms will sweep across Australia eastern and southeastern states next week.
Be very grateful the AFL Grand Final is not being played in Melbourne this Saturday
14:13 EST
We should all be grateful that the 2021 AFL Grand Final between the Melbourne Demons and Western Bulldogs is being played at Optus Stadium in Perth rather than at the MCG, because Melbourne's Saturday weather does not look good.
