West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
med
high
med
low
low
med
low
low
high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 9 August to 13 August, and 15 August to 19 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 14 August to 18 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 August to 5 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 16 August to 20 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Heavy snow and rain targeting southern NSW
11:05 EST
Heavy, persistent rain and snow has fallen in southeastern NSW during the last 24, with more on the way today.
Wild weather to hit parts of NSW as low-pressure system brings rain, wind and big waves
17:03 EST
Wild weather is on the way for parts of New South Wales, but it is more likely to bring relief than cause concern.
