West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
29
30
high
Dec 1
2
3
4
low
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
low
19
20
low
21
22
23
low
24
25
low
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 December to 11 December, 21 December to 25 December, and 29 December to 2 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 December to 8 December, 8 December to 12 December, and 26 December to 30 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 December to 12 December, 22 December to 26 December, and 29 December to 2 January.

Issued Nov 28

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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