West Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
14
15
16
17
18
med
19
med
20
high
21
med
22
low
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Aug 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
6
7
8
9
10
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 18 July to 22 July, 9 August to 13 August, and 15 August to 19 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 July to 24 July, 31 July to 4 August, and 14 August to 18 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 1 August to 5 August, 9 August to 13 August, and 16 August to 20 August.

Issued Jul 13

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

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17:03 EST

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