NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 March to 11 March, 15 March to 19 March, and 19 March to 23 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 March to 8 March, and 8 March to 12 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 7 March to 11 March, and 15 March to 19 March.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Tropical Cyclone Esther makes landfall in Gulf of Carpentaria
19:21 EDT
Tropical Cyclone Esther has made landfall near the border of NT and Queensland as a category one system.
Storms break Perth's dry weather spell this week ahead of Cyclone Esther's arrival in WA
18:57 EDT
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hailstones will loom as a feature over Perth and WA's south-west for much of this week, as the state's north braces for another cyclone.
Late-summer snow in Tasmania
16:20 EDT
A dusting of snow could settle on mountain tops in Tasmania during the middle of this week.
