NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
med
low
low
high
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 10 September to 14 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 August to 28 August, and 7 September to 11 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Adelaide's best rain in months, with more on the way
14:50 EST
Some welcome rain is spreading over South Australia today, with Adelaide picking up its best drop in a couple of months.
Shoalhaven residents assess damage after worst flood on NSW South Coast since 1991
13:48 EST
Residents on the New South Wales South Coast are assessing the damage to their properties after the region experienced its worst flooding in almost 30 years.
