NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12
13
low
14
low
15
16
17
18
19
20
low
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
high
25
med
26
27
28
low
29
low
30
31
low
Sep 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
med
8
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 10 September to 14 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 August to 28 August, and 7 September to 11 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 20 August to 24 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 11 September to 15 September.

Issued Aug 11

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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