NW Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Nov 1
2
low
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 October to 1 November, 7 November to 11 November, and 17 November to 21 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 28 October to 1 November, and 3 November to 7 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 16 November to 20 November.

Issued Oct 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Feral cat in Simpson Desert eats entire kangaroo carcass, surprising researchers

06:48 EDT

A PhD student studying the environmental impact of animal carcasses has filmed a feral cat eating an entire kangaroo in the Simpson Desert.

Queensland's weather outlook for summer forecasts fewer cyclones, more severe bushfires

00:06 EDT

Fewer cyclones are forecast but the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned a "dangerous cocktail" is brewing for the remainder of Queensland's fire season.

Fewer tropical cyclones, not necessarily weaker

14:53 EDT

The Bureau of Meteorology are tipping fewer tropical cyclones than usual during the upcoming Australian cyclone season, which starts next month.