NE Pastoral 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
med
23
med
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
28
29
med
30
31
low
Nov 1
low
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
11
12
13
low
14
low
15
16
low
17
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 October to 2 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 16 November to 20 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 October to 28 October, 28 October to 1 November, and 19 November to 23 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 October to 1 November, 8 November to 12 November, and 15 November to 19 November.

Issued Oct 19

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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