Murraylands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
Mar 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
high
5
low
6
7
8
low
9
med
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
14
15
med
16
17
low
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 5 March to 9 March, 11 March to 15 March, and 28 March to 1 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 March to 10 March, and 14 March to 18 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 March to 6 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 24 March to 28 March.

Issued Feb 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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