Mount Lofty Ranges 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
low
low
low
high
med
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 April to 29 April, 1 May to 5 May, and 14 May to 18 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 April to 24 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 April to 20 April, 1 May to 5 May, and 14 May to 18 May.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Tropical Cyclone Seroja update
13:39 EST
Tropical Cyclone Seroja is tracking in a south-southeast direction and is expected to make landfall just north of Geraldton later this evening or early on Monday morning.
Powerful south-westerly ground swell impacts Tasmania
13:39 EST
Very large, long period waves are making for treacherous conditions along the western and northern coastlines of Tasmania. A series of cold fronts, which have brought gusty winds and cold conditions to much of the southeast, generated these large waves over the last week. Intense south to south-westerly winds over the Southern Ocean directed towards Australia with these fronts built this powerful swell event with passage of each frontal system across an already active sea state. On Tasmania’s western coast, the Cape Sorell directional wave buoy captured some very large waves bringing dangerous surf.
