Mount Lofty Ranges 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
22
23
24
25
high
26
med
27
28
29
low
30
low
31
low
Feb 1
low
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 January to 2 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 20 February to 24 February. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 January to 31 January, and 8 February to 12 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 25 January to 29 January, 29 January to 2 February, and 16 February to 20 February.

Issued Jan 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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