Mount Lofty Ranges 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
med
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 10 October to 14 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October, and 18 October to 22 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 4 October to 8 October, and 21 October to 25 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Warm September night for Tasmania ahead of front
13:25 EST
Tasmania just had a very warm September night, the second night in a row that minimum temperatures across the state were reporting well above average. Warm air from mainland Australia has filtered down to the southeastern parts of the country, forced further south by strong winds from the interior associated with an approaching cold front.
Low making a warm, windy, stormy mark on southeastern Australia
12:37 EST
A low pressure system and associated front are crossing New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania today bringing strong winds, rain, thunderstorms and high temperatures.
Barnaby Joyce says he sent 'an awful lot' of special drought envoy reports to PM
18:49 EST
The Federal Government's former special drought envoy, Barnaby Joyce, says he sent "an awful lot" of reports to the Prime Minister about issues relating to drought-affected communities, during his appointment.
