Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
26
med
27
high
28
high
29
low
30
med
31
high
Aug 1
high
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
high
7
low
8
med
9
med
10
high
11
high
12
med
13
high
14
high
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
med
19
high
20
med
21
22
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 July to 27 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.

Issued Jul 25

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Cold front dumps snow and rain across the southeast

14:38 EST

A vigorous cold front has swept across the nations southeast in recent days bringing rain, snow and gusty winds across multiple states and territories.

Record winds for South Australia

13:01 EST

Those in southern parts of South Australia will be able to testify to just how windy it has been recently, with vigorous fronts crossing the state bringing some gale force winds.

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