Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
high
high
high
high
high
low
high
med
med
med
med
low
low
med
low
med
low
low
med
low
high
med
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, and 16 September to 20 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 August to 23 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 3 September to 7 September.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
-
Display your Local Weather here
automatically each time you visit us:
Rotates through Temperature,
Wind, Humidity and RainUse the Search Bar above
to find your Local, and go to the Local page
Click "Set My Local"
button next to the location name
Weather News
Increasing chances of La Nina rains for Australia
15:52 EST
The prospect of a wet and stormy spring is increasing for large parts of Australia, with the U.S.
Criterium du Dauphine riders scatter as hailstorm strikes final climb in Tour de France lead-up race
11:05 EST
Chaos has reigned over the professional peloton on the second stage of the Criterium du Dauphine as riders were caught in a massive hail storm in the closing stages.
