Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
high
high
low
med
high
high
med
low
low
med
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low
med
med
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high
med
high
high
low
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med
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med
high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 30 July to 3 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 21 August to 25 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 July to 27 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 July to 3 August, 8 August to 12 August, and 15 August to 19 August.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Cold front dumps snow and rain across the southeast
14:38 EST
A vigorous cold front has swept across the nations southeast in recent days bringing rain, snow and gusty winds across multiple states and territories.
Record winds for South Australia
13:01 EST
Those in southern parts of South Australia will be able to testify to just how windy it has been recently, with vigorous fronts crossing the state bringing some gale force winds.
