Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
high
high
med
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 November to 17 November, 17 November to 21 November, and 27 November to 1 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 November to 15 November, 18 November to 22 November, and 22 November to 26 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 14 November to 18 November, 18 November to 22 November, and 28 November to 2 December.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Sodden and stormy Saturday in NSW
15:06 EDT
The low pressure system over NSW that has been in the spotlight over the past couple of days has produced a downpour of rain in many locations in eastern NSW.
Hail hits Sydney with severe thunderstorm warnings in place for much of NSW
14:52 EDT
Parts of Sydney have been showered in hail and the Bureau of Meteorology has warned there may be more to come as a low pressure system moves over the state.
