Lower South East 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
16
low
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
high
21
high
22
low
23
high
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
med
31
Sep 1
low
2
med
3
low
4
low
5
med
6
7
8
low
9
high
10
med
11
low
12
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 August to 26 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 5 September to 9 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 August to 30 August, and 16 September to 20 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 August to 23 August, 29 August to 2 September, and 3 September to 7 September.

Issued Aug 14

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Increasing chances of La Nina rains for Australia

15:52 EST

The prospect of a wet and stormy spring is increasing for large parts of Australia, with the U.S.

Criterium du Dauphine riders scatter as hailstorm strikes final climb in Tour de France lead-up race

11:05 EST

Chaos has reigned over the professional peloton on the second stage of the Criterium du Dauphine as riders were caught in a massive hail storm in the closing stages.