Lower Eyre Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
17
high
18
low
19
20
21
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
low
27
high
28
med
29
high
30
high
Jul 1
2
low
3
med
4
5
low
6
low
7
8
med
9
med
10
med
11
high
12
med
13
low
14
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 June to 2 July, 8 July to 12 July, and 15 July to 19 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 27 June to 1 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 June to 30 June, 2 July to 6 July, and 9 July to 13 July.

Issued Jun 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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