Flinders 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
8
low
9
10
11
low
12
13
14
15
16
17
low
18
med
19
low
20
21
22
23
low
24
25
26
low
27
28
29
30
31
Sep 1
2
3
4
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 16 August to 20 August, 26 August to 30 August, and 7 September to 11 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 August to 19 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 16 August to 20 August, 24 August to 28 August, and 7 September to 11 September.

Issued Aug 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Flash flooding tipped as a powerful cold front and cloud band head for WA

18:12 EST

Western Australia is set to be drenched from Sunday as a powerful cold front combines with a cloud band to produce thunderstorms and heavy falls which could lead to flash flooding.

Snow falls over Flinders Ranges, creating alpine scenes in South Australia's north

15:16 EST

Snow has fallen across parts of South Australia including as far north as the upper Flinders Ranges, transforming the usually parched landscape into a scene likened to the North Pole.