Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
31
Nov 1
2
3
low
4
med
5
6
low
7
low
8
low
9
10
low
11
12
low
13
14
15
16
17
18
low
19
med
20
21
22
23
24
25
low
26
low
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 November to 13 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 1 December to 5 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 10 November to 14 November, 16 November to 20 November, and 23 November to 27 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 5 November to 9 November, 9 November to 13 November, and 27 November to 1 December.

Issued Oct 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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