Adelaide 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
med
31
high
Aug 1
med
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
med
6
low
7
8
9
low
10
med
11
low
12
med
13
14
low
15
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
low
20
med
21
low
22
23
24
low
25
med
26
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 August to 14 August, 16 August to 20 August, and 23 August to 27 August. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 30 August to 3 September.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 August to 19 August, 23 August to 27 August, and 1 September to 5 September.

Issued Jul 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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