Wide Bay Burnett 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Nov 1
low
2
low
3
4
5
low
6
med
7
high
8
med
9
high
10
med
11
med
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
low
20
med
21
med
22
23
med
24
med
25
med
26
med
27
med
28
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 4 November to 8 November, 27 November to 1 December, and 2 December to 6 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 6 November to 10 November, 13 November to 17 November, and 17 November to 21 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 November to 12 November, 17 November to 21 November, and 28 November to 2 December.

Issued Oct 30

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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