Southeast Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
high
13
high
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
high
18
med
19
low
20
low
21
low
22
high
23
high
24
low
25
low
26
med
27
high
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
low
Apr 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 March to 16 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 8 April to 12 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 March to 18 March, 31 March to 4 April, and 10 April to 14 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 19 March to 23 March, 27 March to 31 March, and 8 April to 12 April.

Issued Mar 7

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Wet week to come for NSW

12:38 EDT

Following a fine and largely dry weekend across the state, conditions will turn wet and stormy from the start of next week.

Wicked weekend waves for NSW coast

10:29 EDT

Significant wave heights of up to 4 metres have and will continue to batter the NSW coast this weekend.

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