Peninsula 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
27
med
28
high
29
med
30
high
31
high
Feb 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
high
7
high
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
med
16
med
17
high
18
med
19
med
20
high
21
high
22
med
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 January to 4 February, 22 February to 26 February, and 27 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 February to 13 February, and 13 February to 17 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 January to 4 February, 18 February to 22 February, and 22 February to 26 February.

Issued Jan 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Rainfall totals creep up as monsoon conditions burst across the north

15:38 EDT

From flooding rain across rivers in the Northern Territory and Queensland, to hail and dust storms across NSW and widespread rainfall across Victoria, this week has been busy across the east and north.

String of heat caps off January for Canberra

12:30 EDT

While northern and eastern NSW are in for storms and rain, Australia's capital is experiencing a sweltering Australia day, with the hot temperatures set to stretch to the end of the month.

A Stormy Australia Day Ahead for the East and North

15:24 EDT

Australia Day will be a stormy one for much of northern and eastern Australia as a deep trough brings sparky skies.