Nth Goldfields 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
med
30
low
31
low
Feb 1
2
low
3
low
4
high
5
low
6
high
7
high
8
high
9
high
10
high
11
low
12
med
13
med
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 12 February to 16 February, 21 February to 25 February, and 26 February to 2 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 January to 2 February, 5 February to 9 February, and 9 February to 13 February.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 January to 1 February, 7 February to 11 February, and 12 February to 16 February.

Issued Jan 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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