Gulf Country 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 10 October to 14 October, and 24 October to 28 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October, 21 October to 25 October, and 28 October to 1 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 October to 7 October, 12 October to 16 October, and 21 October to 25 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
A perfect recipe for wet weather
17:22 EST
The stage is being set for an outbreak of wet and potentially severe weather over southeast Australia next week.
Frigid Friday falls into Saturday in Tasmania
11:44 EST
After strong winds and low-level snow lashed Tasmania on Friday, you’d think that Tasmanians had earned a day off from extreme weather.
