Capricornia 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
10
11
low
12
low
13
high
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
18
low
19
low
20
med
21
med
22
low
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
28
29
low
30
low
31
low
Jun 1
med
2
low
3
4
5
6
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 22 May to 26 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 6 June to 10 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 May to 17 May, and 17 May to 21 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 May to 25 May, 1 June to 5 June, and 8 June to 12 June.

Issued May 8

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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