Capricornia 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
high
26
med
27
low
28
29
30
low
31
low
Nov 1
low
2
low
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
high
7
med
8
med
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
med
17
med
18
low
19
low
20
med
21
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 November to 6 November, 6 November to 10 November, and 11 November to 15 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 29 October to 2 November, 2 November to 6 November, and 8 November to 12 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 2 November to 6 November, 12 November to 16 November, and 21 November to 25 November.

Issued Oct 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Promising signs of SA dry spell coming to an end

17:13 EDT

Much of South Australia has had little or no rain during the past week or so, making some farmers nervous, but they shouldn't have to wait too much longer.

Skies spark over northwestern Queensland

14:15 EDT

Slow-moving storms have brought very heavy rain to parts of northwestern Queensland this morning, with one location receiving four months' worth of rain in just five hours.

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