Brisbane 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
med
low
med
low
med
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 May to 6 May, 15 May to 19 May, and 19 May to 23 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 April to 19 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 27 April to 1 May, 2 May to 6 May, and 10 May to 14 May.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Unseasonably chilly winds to bring showers, even highland snow to Australia's southeast
13:55 EST
Much of the coming week or so looks like staying cooler than average in Australia's southeast due to the passing of frequent fronts which also bring the chance of snowfalls to the peaks.
Rain returns to northeastern NSW
12:19 EST
Following a bone-dry week across the northeastern quadrant of New South Wales, rain developed over the region on Friday evening courtesy of a trough.
