Darwin-Daly 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
low
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
low
30
med
Oct 1
low
2
3
4
5
6
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
med
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
med
15
low
16
17
18
low
19
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 17 October to 21 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 September to 30 September, 11 October to 15 October, and 19 October to 23 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 30 September to 4 October, 9 October to 13 October, and 20 October to 24 October.

Issued Sep 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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