Upper Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
23
24
25
26
27
28
low
29
low
30
Oct 1
low
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
med
9
low
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
19
20
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 29 September to 3 October, 10 October to 14 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 October to 16 October, and 18 October to 22 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 September to 3 October, 4 October to 8 October, and 21 October to 25 October.

Issued Sep 21

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Warm September night for Tasmania ahead of front

13:25 EST

Tasmania just had a very warm September night, the second night in a row that minimum temperatures across the state were reporting well above average.  Warm air from mainland Australia has filtered down to the southeastern parts of the country, forced further south by strong winds from the interior associated with an approaching cold front.

Low making a warm, windy, stormy mark on southeastern Australia

12:37 EST

A low pressure system and associated front are crossing New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania today bringing strong winds, rain, thunderstorms and high temperatures.

Barnaby Joyce says he sent 'an awful lot' of special drought envoy reports to PM

18:49 EST

The Federal Government's former special drought envoy, Barnaby Joyce, says he sent "an awful lot" of reports to the Prime Minister about issues relating to drought-affected communities, during his appointment.