Sydney 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
high
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| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 7 June to 11 June, 17 June to 21 June, and 22 June to 26 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 24 May to 28 May.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 7 June to 11 June, 15 June to 19 June, and 21 June to 25 June.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Quick change for Canberra
14:37 EST
After an almost summer like day yesterday, Canberra is feeling the cold today, with conditions set to get even colder next week.
Cold and dry winds for Sydney
12:10 EST
A strong front will introduce a much colder and drier airmass across the Harbour City on Monday.
Chilly mornings on the horizon for Brisbane
15:55 EST
The mercury is forecast drop into single figures by Friday morning in Queensland's capital, as cold and very dry air migrates across the region from the southwest.
