Southern Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
med
26
low
27
low
28
med
29
med
30
low
31
Jun 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
7
8
9
high
10
med
11
12
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
17
18
19
20
low
21
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 28 May to 1 June, 12 June to 16 June, and 19 June to 23 June. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 3 June to 7 June, and 26 June to 30 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 1 June, 9 June to 13 June, and 17 June to 21 June.

Issued May 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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