South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
med
med
med
low
low
low
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 2 July to 6 July, 6 July to 10 July, and 16 July to 20 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 22 June to 26 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 5 July to 9 July.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 June to 2 July, 2 July to 6 July, and 10 July to 14 July.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Soggy Sunday for Sydney
12:24 EST
Sydneysiders awoke to a soggy morning on Sunday as an offshore low pressure trough drove showers through the basin.
Change on the cards for southeast Queensland
12:09 EST
In the southeast of Queensland, some unseasonable warmth has lingered around for the past couple of days, however these conditions aren't expected to last.
Wet conditions persist for western TAS
13:50 EST
A band of persistent cold fronts is continuing to drench parts of western Tasmania, while eastern TAS remains in a rainfall deficit.
