South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast
low
low
low
low
med
low
med
med
low
low
med
low
med
low
med
high
low
low
low
low
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 October to 11 October, and 23 October to 27 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Damaging winds in multiple states
15:11 EST
A strong cold front will cause damaging winds in southeastern Australia during the next 24 hours, with some states already in the thick of the wild weather.
Massive temperature contrast between bitterly cold Melbourne and summery Sydney
11:38 EST
It's an absolutely freezing September day across virtually all of Victoria and Tasmania, parts of South Australia, and southern parts of NSW today, as a strong spring cold front sweeps northwards.
