South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
21
low
22
23
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
28
med
29
low
30
Oct 1
2
3
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
low
8
med
9
low
10
med
11
12
low
13
med
14
high
15
low
16
low
17
low
18
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 26 September to 30 September, 2 October to 6 October, and 11 October to 15 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 7 October to 11 October, and 23 October to 27 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 26 September to 30 September, 1 October to 5 October, and 11 October to 15 October.

Issued Sep 20

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

Damaging winds in multiple states

15:11 EST

A strong cold front will cause damaging winds in southeastern Australia during the next 24 hours, with some states already in the thick of the wild weather.

Massive temperature contrast between bitterly cold Melbourne and summery Sydney

11:38 EST

It's an absolutely freezing September day across virtually all of Victoria and Tasmania, parts of South Australia, and southern parts of NSW today, as a strong spring cold front sweeps northwards.

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