South Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
25
26
low
27
28
low
29
med
Mar 1
low
2
med
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
10
11
low
12
low
13
low
14
high
15
med
16
high
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
med
23
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the southeast Pacific, South America, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 11 March to 15 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 24 March to 28 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 1 March to 5 March, 6 March to 10 March, and 14 March to 18 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 March to 16 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 24 March to 28 March.

Issued Feb 23

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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