Snowy Mountains 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
28
29
med
30
med
Oct 1
low
2
low
3
4
5
med
6
med
7
low
8
low
9
low
10
11
low
12
low
13
med
14
15
16
low
17
low
18
low
19
med
20
low
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 3 October to 7 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 21 October to 25 October. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 October to 13 October.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 3 October to 7 October, 14 October to 18 October, and 25 October to 29 October.

Issued Sep 26

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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The southwest of Western Australia is in for a thundery weekend as a trough and low pass over the region.

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