Snowy Mountains 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
med
4
med
5
med
6
low
7
8
low
9
10
high
11
med
12
low
13
med
14
15
med
16
low
17
low
18
19
low
20
21
low
22
low
23
low
24
med
25
26
high
27
high
28
high
29
med
30
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 August to 12 August, 12 August to 16 August, and 29 August to 2 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 9 August to 13 August, and 24 August to 28 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 August to 12 August, 13 August to 17 August, and 29 August to 2 September.

Issued Aug 1

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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