Snowy Mountains 28-day Rainfall Forecast
med
high
high
high
low
low
high
med
med
med
low
low
low
med
low
low
med
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 31 August to 4 September, 13 September to 17 September, and 17 September to 21 September. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 August to 19 August.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 31 August to 4 September, 4 September to 8 September, and 16 September to 20 September.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
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Weather News
Perth hit by cold front, bringing snow to Stirling Range in south
23:31 EST
Western Australia's South West has been lashed by heavy rain and strong winds, with a cold front blanketing the mountain peaks of the Stirling Range in snow.
Western Australia rain, snow and frost
13:33 EST
A strong cold front delivered at least some rain to most central and southern districts of WA, except for Eucla, over the last 24 hours.
Quick change for Canberra
11:42 EST
You'd be forgiven for thinking that summer was making an early start in Canberra at the moment, but that's all about to change.
