Mid North Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
12
13
14
low
15
16
17
low
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
low
22
med
23
high
24
low
25
med
26
med
27
low
28
low
29
med
30
low
May 1
med
2
low
3
low
4
5
6
low
7
8
9
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 April to 19 April, 29 April to 3 May, and 14 May to 18 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 17 April to 21 April, and 25 April to 29 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 15 April to 19 April, 29 April to 3 May, and 6 May to 10 May.

Issued Apr 10

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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