Lower Western 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
30
Oct 1
2
3
4
low
5
low
6
7
8
low
9
low
10
low
11
med
12
med
13
14
15
low
16
low
17
18
19
low
20
low
21
22
low
23
24
25
low
26
med
27
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 9 October to 13 October, 23 October to 27 October, and 30 October to 3 November. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 26 October to 30 October, and 31 October to 4 November.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 8 October to 12 October, 24 October to 28 October, and 1 November to 5 November.

Issued Sep 29

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Display Your Local Weather

Weather News

BOM declares a La Nina, signalling wet spring and summer likely for northern, eastern Australia

16:08 EST

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a La Nina is officially underway, signalling we could be in for a wet spring and summer.

La Nina is here

15:29 EST

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared that La Niña is underway, echoing similar statements made earlier this month by climate agencies in the USA and Japan.