Hunter 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
low
4
low
5
low
6
low
7
8
high
9
low
10
high
11
low
12
13
low
14
low
15
low
16
low
17
med
18
med
19
med
20
med
21
22
23
low
24
low
25
low
26
low
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 10 March to 14 March, 17 March to 21 March, and 3 April to 7 April. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 12 March to 16 March, and 26 March to 30 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 March to 17 March, 21 March to 25 March, and 3 April to 7 April.

Issued Mar 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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Weather News

Cyclone Niran forms near Queensland

08:04 EDT

Tropical Cyclone Niran has developed off the north Queensland coast this morning.

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