Central Tablelands 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
3
low
4
low
5
high
6
7
8
9
low
10
low
11
12
low
13
low
14
med
15
med
16
med
17
low
18
low
19
high
20
high
21
med
22
med
23
med
24
med
25
low
26
low
27
28
29
high
30
med
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 December to 19 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 3 January to 7 January. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 11 December to 15 December, 19 December to 23 December, and 25 December to 29 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 18 December to 22 December, 23 December to 27 December, and 3 January to 7 January.

Issued Dec 2

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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