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Monsoon troughs & ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan are triggering rain, storms & strong windsin the tropics. Humid, unstable air & onshore winds are triggering showers & storms in NSW & SE QLD. Gusty showers & the odd storm from NW WA to SA in troughs associated with a tropical low.
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18 Mar 2024, 11:44PM UTC
NT flooding as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan moves inland
The remnants of Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan will carry heavy rain across the NT over the next few days as communities assess the damage in the powerful system’s wake. Megan made landfall as a category three severe tropical cyclone on Monday afternoon, crossing the coast to the southeast of Port McArthur. The tropical cyclone caused powerful winds and torrential rain over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria as it approached and crossed the coast. Centre Island, which experienced the brunt of Megan’s severe weather, registered wind gusts of up to 170 km/h on Monday afternoon. It also received more than 500 mm of rain during the 48 hours ending at 8 am ACST on Tuesday, which is roughly half a year’s worth of rain for the island. Residents in the town of Borroloola had to hunker down and ride out Megan’s ferocious weather, taking shelter in the police station and other buildings capable of withstanding a severe tropical cyclone. Borroloola’s weather station received just over 300 mm of rain during the 24 hours ending at 3:05am ACST on Tuesday, which was more than a month’s worth of rain at this time of year. Video: Satellite images capture xx-Tropical Cyclone Megan moving over the NT on Tuesday morning. The McArthur River at Borroloola exceeded the minor flood level on Monday night and has continued to rise throughout Tuesday morning. At 7:45 am AECT on Tuesday, the river was up to 11.76 m, which is 2 m below the moderate flood level. Megan weakened quickly after making landfall and by 6:30 am ACST on Tuesday, the system had been downgraded to a tropical low as it moved inland to the south of Borroloola. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan will continue to move inland over the NT’s Interior over the next few days. This has prompted a severe weather warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall and damaging winds, along with a flood watch. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 9:30am ACST on Thursday, March 21, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model This inland rain is going to be falling over areas that are still holding water from recent rainfall, meaning rivers remain elevated in some areas, which may exacerbate flooding. Some inland roads may be cut off by floodwater later this week, including primary highways, so be sure to check road conditions before travelling.
18 Mar 2024, 1:11AM UTC
Cyclone Megan battering NT coast
Destructive winds have started to lash the NT coastline as Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan edges closer to making landfall. At 9:30am ACST on Monday, March 18, Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan was a category three system located 55 km east northeast of Port McArthur. The satellite images below show the powerful cyclone sitting over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday morning, While Megan is not expected to make landfall until Monday afternoon, it was already close enough to the coast to cause severe weather on Monday morning. A wind gust of 126 km/h was observed at Centre Island shortly before 9am ACST on Monday. Less than one hour later, a gust of 132 km/h was recorded at 9:43am. Centre Island is part of the Sir Edwards Pellew Group of Islands, which sit just off the NT coast in the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. These islands are expected feel the full force of Megan as the system approaches the NT coast on Monday. According to the official forecast track map from the Bureau of Meteorology, severe Tropical Cyclone Megan is expected to make landfall between Bing Bong and the NT/Qld Border during Monday afternoon into the evening. Image: Track map for severe tropical cyclone Megan, issued at 10:21am ACST on Monday, March 18, 2024. A more recent track map may be available. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Megan’s landfall is likely to cause very destructive winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and a dangerous storm tide over the Sir Edwards Pellew Group and along the southwest coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria. This may include wind gusts to around 200 km/h near Megan’s very destructive core, and more than 500 mm of rain near and to the east of the system’s centre. Megan should weaken quickly after crossing the coast. However, the remnant low pressure system is expected to carry heavy rain across the NT during the next few days. The map below shows how much rain one forecast model is predicting over the NT between Monday and Wednesday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 9:30pm ACST on Wednesday, March 20, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Megan will be the fourth tropical cyclone to make landfall in the Australian region so far this season and the second to cross the NT coast. Check the latest tropical cyclone advisories and track maps for the most up-to-date information on Tropical Cyclone Megan.
18 Mar 2024, 12:57AM UTC
First cold snap of the season
While Monday's national weather focus is on Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan in the Gulf of Carpentaria, another big system is looming down south that will impact southern Australia in coming days. The first strong cold front of autumn 2024 is heading the way of southeastern Australia and Tasmania and will bring strong blustery winds along with a significant drop in temperatures. Adelaide is already experiencing the warmth ahead of the front this Monday with a top of 30°C on the cards, ahead of a Wednesday max of 21°C, which would be the coolest day of 2024 to date. Melbourne will drop from a maximum of 32°C on Tuesday to a top of 18°C on Wednesday. Hobart should reach 29°C on Tuesday before a much chillier max of just 17°C on Wednesday. Canberra is heading for a top of 20°C on Thursday after a minimum of 5°C overnight, both of which would be the coolest readings for the year to date after what has been a very warm start to 2024 for the national capital. Sydney is an interesting one. Its maximum temp alone doesn't reveal the full picture, as after Wednesday's predicted high of 27°C is recorded, a strong afternoon southerly could drop temps by around ten degrees within a very short period. You can see the cold front sweeping across the southeast on Wednesday in our synoptic chart above, and while this particular system is not quite cold or moist enough to deliver the first autumn snow to the mainland high country, there's a chance of a few snow flurries at higher elevations in Tasmania. Thursday morning will then potentially be the coldest of the year in many locations as the dewpoints/humidity behind the front will be considerably lower. This is reflected in the chart below showing the predicted minimum temps. Anything with a shade of pale blue indicates single-digit overnight lows, while in the mainland ski resorts and the highlands of Tasmania it’ll be a properly frosty one, with subzero lows in store. Blame SAM for the change in weather... One of the main reasons behind a lack of cold fronts in southern Australia thus far in 2024 has been the consistently positive SAM (Southern Annular Mode) which refers to the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position. When the SAM is positive, the systems tend to be further south. But the SAM has just gone into a negative phase, and while that is no guarantee of frontal activity affecting southern Australia, it makes the sort of weather coming this week a lot more likely. Image: The black line shows where our old mate SAM is at. Source: BoM. READ MORE: What the negative SAM means for Australia
Weather in Business
31 Jan 2024, 5:54AM UTC
Powerful waves to impact port operations
Deceptively powerful surf is forecast for this weekend, as heavy waves originating from the Southern Ocean hit the NSW coastline. The heavy surf will be whipped up by a low-pressure system sweeping across the south of the continent later this week. The map below shows wave heights of 3-4m are expected across the central and southern NSW coast on Friday and Saturday. Image: Significant wave height forecast at 5pm Saturday, February 3 according to Wave Watch III In Sydney waters, wave heights are forecast to peak at 4 to 4.5 metres on the weekend. These wave heights will create very rough seas off the Sydney and Illawarra coasts on the weekend. While the waves will be large, it's the wave period that will generate the deceptively powerful surf. Wave period is the average time between crests (or troughs) of waves. The larger the time difference, the greater the amount of energy associated with the waves or swells. The wave period should reach 10-12 seconds along the Sydney coast and south on Saturday. The map below shows the high period waves impacting the central and southern coastline on Saturday. Image: Wind wave period at 4pm on Saturday, February 3, according to Wave Watch III Looking ahead, the long period swell should move offshore by Monday easing conditions along the NSW coastline. Weatherzone Business offers a comprehensive suite of services, refined through years of collaboration with the marine, ports and offshore industries, to optimise the safety and efficiency of your operations. For more information, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
04 Jan 2024, 4:03AM UTC
Why did electricity demand hit a record low?
On the closing day of 2023, rooftop solar boomed in SA and Vic while record low energy demand was recorded in the two states. On Sunday, December 31, mild temperatures and sunny skies were behind the new record low energy demand in SA and Vic. The satellite image below shows the clear skies on Sunday across Australia's southeast mainland, which allowed rooftop solar output to become the leading energy source in SA and Vic. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 1pm AEDT on Sunday, December 31, 2023. Source: RAMMB/CIRA According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Victoria’s minimal operational demand was 1,564 MW on Sunday, December 31, which beat the previous record that was set Sunday, November 12, 2023. SA’s demand dropped into the negatives on the same day, reaching as low as -26MW on New Year's Eve, which trumped the previous record low set back in October 2023. These new records superseded the ones set only several months ago, showing the National Energy Market (NEM) has had a period of abnormally low demand in the past couple of months. This has been driven by cooler temperatures under the influence of a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the waning impact of El Nino in December. The image below shows that on the same day, rooftop solar (yellow) contributed most of SA and Vic energy needs. Image: Vic and SA electricity generation on Sunday, December 31, Source Wattclarity The Image above also shows that wind and solar farms contributed near zero energy demand during the middle of the same day. It also shows that brown coal and rooftop solar were the two main sources of energy for the grid in the middle of the day in the states. On Sunday, winds were relatively light under the influence of a high-pressure ridge extending from Bight to the southern Tasman Sea. According to AEMO, rooftop solar contributed two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs on December 31. New operational demand records set in VIC (1,564 MW) & SA (-26 MW) on 31 December 2023, with #rooftopsolar contributing two-thirds of VIC's & all of SA's total energy needs. On the day, wholesale electricity prices averaged -$66.54 & -$73.02 ($/MWh) in SA & VIC, respectively. pic.twitter.com/0JUorY4wG4 — AEMO (@AEMO_Energy) January 2, 2024 Rooftop solar has been increasing year-on-year since 2018, driven by a boom in solar installations across Australia. Looking ahead, January looks to be wetter and cloudier than average across much of the NEM. February is expected to see near-to-below average rainfall and cloud, which could increase solar output in the closing month of summer.